What will really defeat FPTP: local change

The AV referendum is pretty depressing, everyone agrees. Already Lib Dems are apparently debating the consequences of defeat.

In retrospect, Lib Dems may find this was the wrong change to ask for right now, although I like many others wanted them to get something to change in our voting system. It was too early to ask for full blown PR, but the cracks in first past the post are nevertheless growing. What advocates of change should have asked is how to allow a more diverse politics to develop.

Part of the shift to smaller parties is sociological – as people are no longer focused around large, unionized workplaces or belonging to sizeable church congregations. People are more educated and expect more responsive politics. Party loyalties are prone to shift, and there seems no reason to suppose this will reduce.

The other shift, though, was caused by the changes that Labour introduced at the start of its government. New electoral systems in Scotland, Wales and Europe have given a foothold for UKIP, SNP, Plaid Cymru, the Greens and the BNP.

What the Lib Dems might have argued for, rather than AV, would be STV at local elections, as they introduced in Scotland. Breaking local monopolies in Tory and Labour heartlands helps smaller parties to get a foothold, as well as ensuring greater democratic competition. Longer term, it is through building parties’ votes at local elections that Westminster constituencies change hands.

FPTP is unsustainable in a multi-party system, which greater local diversity would reinforce. With two major parties, FPTP sort of works, but as soon as three or more parties seriously contest a seat, the results get increasingly unpredicatable and unfair. That’s what AV is meant to address, of course.

Thus, if we assume FPTP is likely to become untenable, the Conservatives should be proponents of AV – as it allows a majoritarian system to persist at the expense of parliamentary diversity, even when voters themselves are diverse. Lib Dems, meanwhile, should be pushing for changes that would allow more voting diversity at at whatever level.

The worry now is that the Lib Dems will implode, and voters move back decisively to Labour and the Conservatives. This might set back both the Lib Dems and electoral reform by some time.

If AV is defeated, then we shouldn’t assume that electoral reform is off the table, as many people will wish us to believe, because of the bigger changes noted above. But we should recognize that big Westminster parties won’t shift to fully representative systems unless they are made to.

Let’s hope the Lib Dems get something worthwhile, whatever happens. Multi-member STV wards in Council elections could be a really fundamental long term shift, but also very difficult to argue against, given the multi-seat wards Councils already have.